Kyler Strickler
November 14, 2024
Just like the AL, the winner of this race is already pretty much wrapped up. That doesn't make this award any less exciting. An unlikely triple crown winner is joined by a steady ace, a rookie phenom, a breakout campaign, and a converted reliever on my ballot
1. Chris Sale
In many ways, Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal's campaigns could not be more different. Skubal was one of the favorites for the award coming into the year, and the young ace delivered on those expectations. Sale entered this year coming off the worst performance of his career in which he posted a 4.30 ERA in his final year with Boston. Yet, when it came to results, Sale and Skubal's 2024's were oddly statistically similar. Just like his AL counterpart, Sale secured the NL pitching triple crown, leading the league in wins (18), ERA (2.38), and strikeouts (225). This will result in a Cy Young win, shockingly the first of the lefty's storied career. After his career was seemingly almost over, Sale proved that he still had it and more in 2024, and reignited the Hall of Fame conversation around him that had dissipated in the last half-decade.
2. Zack Wheeler
Zack Wheeler is about a safe bet as it gets. Since he joined the Phillies in 2020, the righty has only posted an ERA over 2.92 one time, which was a 3.61 in 2023 that landed him 6th in NL Cy Young voting. Even if you want to call that a "down year", Wheeler completely eliminated any inklings that he was on the downswing, turning in the best season of his career in 2024. Over 200 innings, the Phillies' ace led the league in WHIP along with a career-low 2.57 ERA, adding up to a solid 6.1 WAR. While now extended, 2024 was a statement cap to Wheeler's original 5-year contract with Philadelphia, of which might go down as one of the best free-agent acquisitions of all time.
3. Paul Skenes
Let's be clear. The only reason Paul Skenes is not the Cy Young winner is because he didn't get called up until early May. Over a full season, Skenes was tracking for 251 strikeouts in only 195 innings to go along with a 1.96 ERA and 0.947 WHIP. These numbers are simply not seen from starting pitchers, especially rookies. Skenes not only completely blew hitters away with his fastball, he seemingly one-by-one kept improving his secondary pitches to ridiculous success. By the end of the year, his fastball, "splinker," sweeper, and changeup were all top of the line, completing an arsenal that made hitters look silly. Skenes will be the heavy favorite for the 2025 Cy Young, and he should be.
4. Hunter Greene
While Paul Skenes was the most exciting young flamethrower in the NL Central, Hunter Greene sneakily posted a massive breakout season. His fastball was the fifth most valuable pitch in the entire MLB, as hitters simply could not catch up to it. This was a huge turnaround from 2023, where it was not only his worst pitch, but probably the worst of any pitcher in the whole league. After 2 seasons where his ERA sat in the mid to high 4s, Greene kept it down to a robust 2.75 this year off the back of a miniscule 1.018 WHIP. If Greene is able to take another step forward, there are seemingly no limits to how good he can get.
5. Reynaldo Lopez
This is a weird one. A starter for his first four years in the league, Reynaldo Lopez struggled so heavily with control that he got shifted to a bullpen role. This ended up being a great move, as the next 3 years saw him post a 3.14 ERA out of the pen. All of this is why it was so surprising that the Braves gave Lopez a 3 year 30 million dollar contract before 2024 - to pitch as a starter. While it was panned at the time, clearly it worked out. Stepping in for an injured Spencer Strider, Lopez utterly dominated - albeit in a limited sample. With a similar volume to Skenes, Lopez finished with a 1.99 ERA and a 1.106 WHIP, securing his future as a starting pitcher for one of the best teams in the league.
Just missed: Logan Webb, Dylan Cease, Shota Imanaga
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