My 2024 NL Cy Young Ballot, Explained

Kyler Strickler

November 14, 2024

Just like the AL, the winner of this race is already pretty much wrapped up. That doesn't make this award any less exciting. An unlikely triple crown winner is joined by a steady ace, a rookie phenom, a breakout campaign, and a converted reliever on my ballot 

1. Chris Sale

In many ways, Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal's campaigns could not be more different. Skubal was one of the favorites for the award coming into the year, and the young ace delivered on those expectations. Sale entered this year coming off the worst performance of his career in which he posted a 4.30 ERA in his final year with Boston. Yet, when it came to results, Sale and Skubal's 2024's were oddly statistically similar. Just like his AL counterpart, Sale secured the NL pitching triple crown, leading the league in wins (18), ERA (2.38), and strikeouts (225). This will result in a Cy Young win, shockingly the first of the lefty's storied career. After his career was seemingly almost over, Sale proved that he still had it and more in 2024, and reignited the Hall of Fame conversation around him that had dissipated in the last half-decade.

2. Zack Wheeler

Zack Wheeler is about a safe bet as it gets. Since he joined the Phillies in 2020, the righty has only posted an ERA over 2.92 one time, which was a 3.61 in 2023 that landed him 6th in NL Cy Young voting. Even if you want to call that a "down year", Wheeler completely eliminated any inklings that he was on the downswing, turning in the best season of his career in 2024. Over 200 innings, the Phillies' ace led the league in WHIP along with a career-low 2.57 ERA, adding up to a solid 6.1 WAR. While now extended, 2024 was a statement cap to Wheeler's original 5-year contract with Philadelphia, of which might go down as one of the best free-agent acquisitions of all time.

3. Paul Skenes

Let's be clear. The only reason Paul Skenes is not the Cy Young winner is because he didn't get called up until early May. Over a full season, Skenes was tracking for 251 strikeouts in only 195 innings to go along with a 1.96 ERA and 0.947 WHIP. These numbers are simply not seen from starting pitchers, especially rookies. Skenes not only completely blew hitters away with his fastball, he seemingly one-by-one kept improving his secondary pitches to ridiculous success. By the end of the year, his fastball, "splinker," sweeper, and changeup were all top of the line, completing an arsenal that made hitters look silly. Skenes will be the heavy favorite for the 2025 Cy Young, and he should be. 

4. Hunter Greene

While Paul Skenes was the most exciting young flamethrower in the NL Central, Hunter Greene sneakily posted a massive breakout season. His fastball was the fifth most valuable pitch in the entire MLB, as hitters simply could not catch up to it. This was a huge turnaround from 2023, where it was not only his worst pitch, but probably the worst of any pitcher in the whole league. After 2 seasons where his ERA sat in the mid to high 4s, Greene kept it down to a robust 2.75 this year off the back of a miniscule 1.018 WHIP. If Greene is able to take another step forward, there are seemingly no limits to how good he can get. 

5. Reynaldo Lopez

This is a weird one. A starter for his first four years in the league, Reynaldo Lopez struggled so heavily with control that he got shifted to a bullpen role. This ended up being a great move, as the next 3 years saw him post a 3.14 ERA out of the pen. All of this is why it was so surprising that the Braves gave Lopez a 3 year 30 million dollar contract before 2024 - to pitch as a starter. While it was panned at the time, clearly it worked out. Stepping in for an injured Spencer Strider, Lopez utterly dominated - albeit in a limited sample. With a similar volume to Skenes, Lopez finished with a 1.99 ERA and a 1.106 WHIP, securing his future as a starting pitcher for one of the best teams in the league. 

Just missed: Logan Webb, Dylan Cease, Shota Imanaga

My 2024 AL Cy Young Ballot, Explained

Kyler Strickler

November 11, 2024

Not a single pitcher has won the triple crown since 2011, when both Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander were at the height of their powers. Oddly enough, 2024 also saw one pitcher from each league pace the field in all of the triple crown categories. Surely these two will win the Cy Young, but who will fill out the rest of the ballot? 

1. Tarik Skubal

In a year where few pitchers truly stood above the rest, Tarik Skubal was dominant. He captured the AL pitching triple crown, leading the league in ERA (2.39), strikeouts (228), and wins (18). The Tigers ace was the backbone of a team that shocked many - after selling at the deadline, the squad made a legendary push to the playoffs and even eliminated an Astros team on the last legs of its dynasty. Throughout this run, the Skubal was Detroit's only reliable starting pitcher, as manager A.J. Hinch opted for a variety of "bullpen chaos" on non-Skubal days. After a solid second half last season, many expected Skubal to take a step forward. However, few saw this absolutely massive leap coming. 

2. Emmanuel Clase

No reliever has placed as high as second in Cy Young voting since 2006 when Trevor Hoffman did it with the Padres. However, Emmanuel Clase just put up a deserving season. Clase led the league in saves for the third year in a row, but it was different this year. After an okay 2023 campaign where he put up a 3.22 ERA and blew 12 saves, 2024 saw him post a miniscule 0.61 ERA with only 3 blown saves. The numbers get more and more ridiculous the further you look, including a 0.659 WHIP, 5 earned runs allowed (over the entire year), and a month and a half long stretch where he did not allow a single run to score. Wile Clase's October struggles may cloud his overall season, his regular season was immaculate. 

3. Seth Lugo

After being primarily a reliever from his age 26 to age 32 seasons, Seth Lugo has proven that the transition to a starter can be seamless. After a good 2023 year with the Padres in his first go-around as a starter, Lugo earned a solid 3-year 45 million dollar contract with the Royals, a move that went largely unnoticed to the casual baseball world. Little did people know that this would be one of the most important acquisitions of the entire offseason. The Royals took a giant leap forward and made the playoffs, largely on the back of the starting rotation - anchored by Lugo. While far from the most flashy pitcher, Lugo parlayed his solid control and command to go deep in games, which led to a 3.00 ERA in 33 starts. Finally, just as a cherry on top, he was able to take home a gold glove for his efforts. 

4. Cole Ragans

Similar to Lugo, without Cole Ragans, the Royals don't go far this year. Another reliever turned starter, the Rangers flipped Ragans to the Royals for Aroldis Chapman at the 2023 deadline. Maybe the Rangers don't regret the trade, as the move helped them win a championship, but it is hard to say they didn't lose the trade. Since coming to Kansas City, Ragans has posted a sub-3.00 ERA and has been dominant while doing so. Leading qualified arms in strikeouts per 9 innings, the lefty provided the Royals with a fantastic one-two punch along with Lugo to lead the way to the playoffs. Still just 26, all eyes are on Ragans to take a similar step forward that Skubal did this year. 

5. Garrett Crochet

The 2024 White Sox were the worst team in modern MLB history. Only the 1899 Spiders finished with a worse record, a team that no living person was around to see. However, the team had a single bright spot, which was Garrett Crochet. Yet another converted reliever, the lefty put up massive strikeout numbers - 12.9 per 9 innings. Crochet's 3.58 ERA was good, but when you consider that he had a horrendous defense behind him, the number should have easily been below three. With all that being said, why is Crochet in fourth on my ballot? Simple, he does not go deep in games. Despite starting 32 contests, Crochet averaged only 4.2 innings in those starts and struggled with his stamina mightily in the second half of the season. If Crochet can go deeper in games he has the potential to be a true ace, but even with those flaws he can put up great seasons.

Just Missed: Ronel Blanco, Corbin Burnes, Logan Gilbert

My 2024 NL MVP Ballot, Explained

Kyler Strickler

November 6, 2024

Next on the list is my NL MVP ballot. While the first few picks are just as cut-and-dry as the AL, I had a much harder time with the bottom of the list. For example, picking two between Chris Sale, Jurickson Profar, and Bryce Harper was extremely tough. Without further delay, lets get into the list. 

1. Shohei Ohtani

Just like the AL, this MVP will be unanimous. While recovering from a torn UCL and relegated to DH, Shohei Ohtani put up the first 50/50 season in MLB history, leading the league in WAR (9.2), plate appearances, runs, home runs, RBI, OBP, slugging, OPS, and total bases. Just a year after Ronald Acuna put up likely the most complete offensive season we had seen since Barry Bonds, Shohei Ohtani not only one-upped it, but left it in the dust completely. As long as Ohtani is healthy enough to hit, he should be the MVP favorite for the rest of the 2020's.

2. Francisco Lindor

Before Ohtani went nuclear in September, many thought Francisco Lindor was having a season that rivalled him. While playing elite defense at shortstop, Lindor put up the best offensive season of his career, falling a single steal short of a 30/30 season and being the anchor of a Mets team that surprised many. Those in favor of a Lindor MVP campaign claim that the Mets would have been out of the playoffs completely without Lindor, and they are right. However, Ohtani simply was better in every category besides defense, and a difference of 2 WAR is nothing to scoff at. 

3. Ketel Marte

2024 is the year the curse of "even-year Ketel" became a thing of the past. Ever since he broke out, in even years, Ketel Marte was an average player. In odd years (2019, 2021, 2023), he put up MVP-caliber production along with positional versatility. 2024 put an end to this trend, as Marte completed arguably his best season to date, all while staying healthy. Headlining the most powerful lineup this year, Marte hit nearly .300 while crushing 36 bombs, a personal high. On top of this, he played the best defense of his career since 2018, a massive return to form after struggling the previous few seasons. 

4. Elly De La Cruz

While not the most valuable player, Elly De La Cruz is probably the most electric player in the league. After an up-and-down rookie season, Elly made progressions in 2024 that resulted in 5.2 WAR. The fastest man in professional sports swiped 67 bags and was truly a nightmare on the basepaths for opposing pitchers, causing havoc even when he wasn't stealing. While he did lead the league in strikeouts and errors, Elly is easily above average at the plate and in the field, and just slight fine-tuning could result in him being an MVP favorite going forward. 

5. William Contreras

This is the year that William Contreras officially took the crown as the best catcher in the league. Getting better every single season, Contreras not only put up a 129 OPS+, he also played the best defense of his career, and even recorded 9 steals. The Brewers desperately needed this from Contreras after Christian Yelich went out for the season, and they got it. At this point, Contreras does not have any weaknesses in his game, and one can only wonder what the next step could be for the superstar who is just entering his prime at 26 years old.

6. Marcell Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna will probably never win an MVP. For one, he is permanently limited to the DH spot.  However, for someone to win an MVP as a DH, they have to do something truly historic like what Shohei Ohtani just did, and Ozuna is simply not built for that. On top of this, Ozuna's past of domestic violence allegations and DUI charges do not do him any favors. However, beyond that, Ozuna put up a fantastic season. The Big Bear smashed 39 home runs to the tune of a .302 average, and was the driving force in a disappointing Braves lineup. Coming off his second-best offensive season, Ozuna from the Braves at least deserves some consideration. 

7. Mookie Betts

On my first draft of this list, I had Mookie Betts in fifth place. However, after further consideration, 116 games played is simply not enough. Had he played the whole year, I think that Mookie would have been in serious MVP consideration, as he filled in at every defensive position the Dodgers wanted him to play, including being the teams starting shortstop on opening day. While doing this, he put up fantastic production that included 4.8 WAR, 19 homers, and 16 steals. While he will have to compete with his teammate Shohei Ohtani going forward for MVP consideration, Mookie will always have a place on these ballots. He's simply too good. 

8. Matt Chapman

Matt Chapman puts up odd season after odd season. For a 2-month stretch every year, he will supplement his all-world fielding skills at the hot corner with a bat that rivals the best players in the league, and then the rest of the year he will struggle. While that trend continued this year, his "struggle months" were average instead of horrific, leading to the third baseman putting up an astounding 7.1 WAR. By this metric, some would be surprised that he finished below Cruz, Contreras, Ozuna, and Betts on my list, but Chapman was just a solid player. He is truly special with the glove, but a 125 OPS+ is not MVP-caliber in my book. If he can get his OPS out of the .700s while continuing to dominate in the field, maybe that can change.

9. Jurickson Profar

I don't think a single soul saw this coming. Before this season, Profar had been considered a bust for literally a decade. The former Rangers number one overall prospect nearly doubled his career WAR this year, but WAR doesn't even do this season justice. By Win Probability Added, Profar was the most valuable player in the entire league after Shohei Ohtani. In high-leverage at-bats, he put up a 327 WRC+, nearly 100 points higher than the second place finisher in Juan Soto. Profar simply got massive hit after massive hit for a Padres team that needed the production. It will be interesting to see just how much money Profar made after this campaign. 

10. Chris Sale 

Another surprising one. Many, including me, thought Chris Sale was washed. The former superstar had not produced a good healthy season since 2018, and was traded to the Braves for basically nothing. However, Atlanta apparently saw something the rest of the league did not, as they immediately gave him an extension and slotted him into the top of their rotation. Sale responded by winning the triple crown, nearly matching Tarik Skubal's year exactly. 18 wins, a 2.38 ERA, and 225 strikeouts are simply fantastic in this era of starting pitching, and it cannot be stated enough how much Atlanta needed this performance after Spencer Strider's injury. 

Just missed: Bryce Harper, Willy Adames, Jackson Merrill

My 2024 AL MVP Ballot, Explained

Kyler Strickler

November 4, 2024

The 2024 season featured some legendary campaigns from future hall-of-famers, but who should receive MVP votes? On every voter's ballot, 10 players from each league get consideration, and the results of this voting will inform fans in the future who dominated this season. With that being said, let's get right into my 2024 AL MVP ballot. 

1. Aaron Judge

Everyone knows who is going to win AL MVP, likely unanimously. Aaron Judge just somehow put up a better season than his record-breaking 2022 campaign, posting a 1.159 OPS and 11.4 WAR. 58 homers and 144 RBI are truly legendary totals, and Judge did all this while playing centerfield for the best team in the American League. Many would argue that this should be Judge's third MVP, but a second will have to suffice. 

2. Bobby Witt Jr. 

Second place will probably be unanimous as well. To say that Bobby Witt had a great season is an understatement, as he put up one of the best shortstop seasons in MLB history. Hitting at a .332 clip, Witt led the league in batting average, while also reaching 30/30 for the second time in his career. On top of this, after early-career concerns with his defense, the Royals superstar has come into his own in the field, earning a Gold Glove for his 2024 campaign. Eclipsing the 10 WAR threshold is truly remarkable for a someone who is still just 24 years old, and Witt looks poised to win multiple MVPs down the road. 

3. Juan Soto

Juan Soto comes in third after setting career highs in  both WAR and home runs in his first season with the Yankees. Beyond the numbers, Soto set the table for Aaron Judge the entire year, a luxury that the captain hasn't had in recent seasons. Everyone before the season knew that Juan Soto was going to get paid in free agency, but after this sort of production, the young superstar might make upwards of 700 million. 

4. Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson finishes in fourth, but even he would tell you it's not how he wanted this year to end. Gunnar was maybe the MVP frontrunner by the All-Star break, as he already had nearly 7 WAR and was leading an Orioles team that looked poised to make a deep playoff run. However, both Henderson and the Orioles stumbled in the second half. Gunnar still put up 8.8 WAR and hit 37 home runs, but he needs to produce at an elite level for a whole season to win the award in the future.

5. Jose Ramirez

Jose Ramirez ends up in fifth on my ballot. J-Ram is no stranger to MVP votes, as there has only been one season since 2017 he didn't receive at least one. The Guardians longtime third baseman was once again the definition of a five-tool player, coming up only one homer shy of a 40-40 season. Nobody will be surprised when the most consistent player of our generation once again finishes between 3rd and 6th on the ballot again next year. 

6. Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran in fact does not need a tennis racket. The breakout young star produced a great season which saw him put up 8.7 WAR, featuring leading the league in both doubles and triples along with truly outstanding defense and 34 steals. While the Red Sox fell flat this year, Duran did not. With one of the best farm systems in the MLB headlined by perhaps the most exciting position player prospect in Roman Anthony, Duran could soon find himself headlining one of the best lineups in baseball. 

7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. needed this year. After the 2021 season, many had pegged Guerrero as possibly the best hitter in the league, as he nearly won a triple crown and truly set the league on fire. The next two years were supremely disappointing, though, as he saw his OPS dip into the .700s. However, this year was a return to form. While he didn't quite reach the peaks of 2021 this year, Vlad still hit .323 with a .940 OPS. Going into 2025, Vlad will likely be the consensus best first baseman in the league, with his 2024 campaign a driving force of that. 

8. Tarik Skubal

Simply put, Tarik Skubal was the best pitcher in the league this year. He won the pitching triple crown, the first time it has been accomplished in a full-length year since Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw did it in 2011. To win MVP, a pitcher has to put up a truly legendary season while at the same time being in a league where no batter makes a good run at the award. While Skubal's 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts do not quite meet that standard, he put up a great enough season to earn low-ballot consideration. 

9. Brent Rooker

A former Twins prospect who flamed out, Brent Rooker was basically the lone bright spot at the plate for an Oakland team which experienced a sad final season in it's longtime home. While Rooker broke out in 2023, 2024 saw him make massive improvements which resulted in him being one of the most valuable players in the league. His batting average jumped nearly 50 points to .293, while still being an elite power hitter who hit 39 bombs in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Despite being a DH, he still managed to post a 5.6 OPS, a truly elite number. 

10. Emmanuel Clase

I never would have thought a reliever could receive an MVP vote from myself, but when you somehow put up 4.4 WAR as in 74 innings pitched, it is hard to ignore. I would argue that this season from Clase is the most dominant reliever season of our generation, as the game was simply over as soon as he toed the mound. You would think that someone who throws a 101-MPH cutter would be a strikeout machine, but Clase instead induces the weakest contact in the league and is ridiculously efficient, allowing the Guardians to deploy him in a variety of situations. 

Just missed: Corey Seager, Yordan Alvarez, Riley Greene