Monday, November 11, 2024

My 2024 AL Cy Young Ballot, Explained

Kyler Strickler

November 11, 2024


Not a single pitcher has won the triple crown since 2011, when both Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander were at the height of their powers. Oddly enough, 2024 also saw one pitcher from each league pace the field in all of the triple crown categories. Surely these two will win the Cy Young, but who will fill out the rest of the ballot? 


1. Tarik Skubal

In a year where few pitchers truly stood above the rest, Tarik Skubal was dominant. He captured the AL pitching triple crown, leading the league in ERA (2.39), strikeouts (228), and wins (18). The Tigers ace was the backbone of a team that shocked many - after selling at the deadline, the squad made a legendary push to the playoffs and even eliminated an Astros team on the last legs of its dynasty. Throughout this run, the Skubal was Detroit's only reliable starting pitcher, as manager A.J. Hinch opted for a variety of "bullpen chaos" on non-Skubal days. After a solid second half last season, many expected Skubal to take a step forward. However, few saw this absolutely massive leap coming. 


2. Emmanuel Clase

No reliever has placed as high as second in Cy Young voting since 2006 when Trevor Hoffman did it with the Padres. However, Emmanuel Clase just put up a deserving season. Clase led the league in saves for the third year in a row, but it was different this year. After an okay 2023 campaign where he put up a 3.22 ERA and blew 12 saves, 2024 saw him post a miniscule 0.61 ERA with only 3 blown saves. The numbers get more and more ridiculous the further you look, including a 0.659 WHIP, 5 earned runs allowed (over the entire year), and a month and a half long stretch where he did not allow a single run to score. Wile Clase's October struggles may cloud his overall season, his regular season was immaculate. 


3. Seth Lugo

After being primarily a reliever from his age 26 to age 32 seasons, Seth Lugo has proven that the transition to a starter can be seamless. After a good 2023 year with the Padres in his first go-around as a starter, Lugo earned a solid 3-year 45 million dollar contract with the Royals, a move that went largely unnoticed to the casual baseball world. Little did people know that this would be one of the most important acquisitions of the entire offseason. The Royals took a giant leap forward and made the playoffs, largely on the back of the starting rotation - anchored by Lugo. While far from the most flashy pitcher, Lugo parlayed his solid control and command to go deep in games, which led to a 3.00 ERA in 33 starts. Finally, just as a cherry on top, he was able to take home a gold glove for his efforts. 


4. Cole Ragans

Similar to Lugo, without Cole Ragans, the Royals don't go far this year. Another reliever turned starter, the Rangers flipped Ragans to the Royals for Aroldis Chapman at the 2023 deadline. Maybe the Rangers don't regret the trade, as the move helped them win a championship, but it is hard to say they didn't lose the trade. Since coming to Kansas City, Ragans has posted a sub-3.00 ERA and has been dominant while doing so. Leading qualified arms in strikeouts per 9 innings, the lefty provided the Royals with a fantastic one-two punch along with Lugo to lead the way to the playoffs. Still just 26, all eyes are on Ragans to take a similar step forward that Skubal did this year. 


5. Garrett Crochet

The 2024 White Sox were the worst team in modern MLB history. Only the 1899 Spiders finished with a worse record, a team that no living person was around to see. However, the team had a single bright spot, which was Garrett Crochet. Yet another converted reliever, the lefty put up massive strikeout numbers - 12.9 per 9 innings. Crochet's 3.58 ERA was good, but when you consider that he had a horrendous defense behind him, the number should have easily been below three. With all that being said, why is Crochet in fourth on my ballot? Simple, he does not go deep in games. Despite starting 32 contests, Crochet averaged only 4.2 innings in those starts and struggled with his stamina mightily in the second half of the season. If Crochet can go deeper in games he has the potential to be a true ace, but even with those flaws he can put up great seasons.


Just Missed: Ronel Blanco, Corbin Burnes, Logan Gilbert

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